The Credit Information Bureau reported that last year the average value of the mortgage was 247.2 thousand. PLN, i.e. more than 15 percentage points more than a year ago. Low interest rates encourage mortgage, but will the mortgage rate increase significantly in the near future?
Interest rates – the amount of the loan installment depends on them
Interest rates are one of the factors affecting the amount of mortgage installments, because it is rare in Poland to find a loan offer with a fixed interest rate. And even in this case it is difficult to talk about complete stabilization – often contracts say about the independence of installments from such factors only for a short time, usually up to five years.
The specific indicator responsible for the increase in mortgage installment is BILOR, closely related to the value of reference rates of the one bank in Poland. While it may be easy to predict their growth, fall or relative calmness over the months, the worse changes are certain for decades of housing loans. What is the situation today?
When is the strong increase in BILOR? We should be calm by the end of 2021
So far, there are no major concerns about the increase in NBP interest rates. They are maintained by the vast majority of central banks at a really low level, and the dovish policy can only deepen in the near future.
As early as in February, during a speech at the Polish Chamber of Commerce, someone said that interest rate cuts are a real solution only in the event of a crisis. After half a year, he still maintains his opinion. At a press conference in early July, he suggested that the current level of interest rates should remain until 2021.
Despite this, we should always be ready to change the mortgage installments to a higher one. Predictions do not always go hand in hand with reality, and a return to reference rates from a few years ago may result in installments higher by several hundred zlotys. Fortunately, they should not be sudden, because they are usually shifted by quarters of percentage points.